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Study on the related factors of 5-year recurrence in patients with cerebral infarction |
WANG Fang1 YAO Zhiping2 |
1.College of Pharmacy, Zhejiang Pharmaceutical College, Zhejiang Province, Ningbo 315000, China;
2.Department of Neurology, Ningbo First Hospital, Zhejiang Province, Ningbo 315000, China |
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Abstract Objective To explore the risk factors of 5-year recurrence in patients with cerebral infarction and construct a prognostic index model to predict recurrence, so as to provide reference for relapse prediction in patients with cerebral infarction. Methods Two hundred and eighty patients with primary incipient ischemic stroke diagnosed in Ningbo First Hospital of Zhejiang Province from January to December 2011 were selected as the research objects, and the recurrence conditions of patients were followed up, and all the follow-up work was finished until December 2016. Kaplan-Meier method was used to analyze the overall recurrence rate, the Cox proportional risk regression model was used to make single-factor and multiple-factor analysis of the risk factors of affecting the recurrence of patients, so as to build recurrence model and individual prognostic index (PI). Results At the end of follow-up, total 38 patients experienced recurrence. The 1-year recurrence rate was 4.8 per person-year, the 2-year recurrence rate was 5.6 per person-year, the 3-year recurrence rate was 7.5 per person-year, the 4-year recurrence rate was 9.7 per person-year and the 5-year recurrence rate was 10.5 per person-year. The single-factor and multiple-factor analysis of Cox proportional risk regression model showed that the independent risk factors of affecting the recurrence of cerebral infarction patients were age (X1, RR = 1.302; 95%CI: 1.018-1.652), the history of hypertension (X2, RR = 0.682; 95%CI: 1.015-3.862), the history of heart disease (X3, RR = 1.765; 95%CI: 1.126-2.865), total cholesterol (X4, RR = 2.136; 95%CI: 1.412-3.267) and family history of stroke (X5, RR = 2.657; 95%CI: 1.172-5.864). Thus, the PI equation of the recurrence model was established: PI = 0.025X1 + 0.681X2 + 0.581X3 + 0.395X4 + 0.973X5). Conclusion The age, history of hypertension, history of heart disease, total cholesterol, and family history of stroke are independent risk factors of affecting medium-long term recurrence in patients with cerebral infarction. The cerebral infarction PI equation of predicting recurrence within 5 years has good effects, which has predictive value for the recurrence of cerebral infarction.
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