2010～2016年我国（不含港澳台）梅毒时空分布及影响因素

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Abstract Objective To explore spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of syphilis epidemic situation in China (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) from 2010 to 2016 and its social influencing factors. Methods Spatial aggregation of syphilis epidemic situation in China (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) from 2010 to 2016 was analyzed by using geographic information software ArcGIS and spatial data analysis software GeoDa. Spatial data processing software SaTScan was used to retrospectively analyze syphilis epidemic situation from 2010 to 2016. Stata was used to carry out panel data regression analysis of syphilis epidemic situation. Results Global spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that there was no spatial aggregation of syphilis incidence in China (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) from 2011 to 2015 (Moran′s I = 0.0444 to 0.1099, P > 0.05), however, in 2010 (Moran′s I = 0.2524, P < 0.05) and 2016 (Moran′s I = 0.1932, P < 0.05), syphilis incidence in China (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) was spatially aggregated. The results of local autocorrelation analysis showed that Jiangsu, Shanghai and Fujian were in the high-high region in 2010, Gansu was in the low-high region in 2013-2016, and all regions in China (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) were not in the high-high region in 2011-2012. Retrospective spatio-temporal scanning analysis revealed that there was one primary clustering region (Shanghai, Zhejiang, RR = 2.49) and six secondary clustering regions (Guangxi, Xinjiang, Chongqing, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia and Ningxia, RR = 1.44-3.50). The results of panel data regression analysis showed that per capita GDP and consumption level were the influencing factors of the incidence of syphilis (P < 0.05). Conclusion The epidemic situation of syphilis has obvious characteristics of spatial-temporal aggregation and is affected by social demographic factors. Discussing the characteristics of spatial-temporal aggregation of syphilis can provide a positive reference for syphilis control strategy and evaluation of the effect of prevention and control measures.

Key words： Syphilis Spatial aggregation Spatial-temporal distribution Social demographic factors

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	ZHANG Huilin1 CHEN Yuyan2 XIAO Yao3 LI Shulian4▲

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ZHANG Huilin1 CHEN Yuyan2 XIAO Yao3 LI Shulian4▲. Spatial-temporal distribution of syphilis and its influencing factors in China (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) from 2010 to 2016[J]. 中国医药导报, 2019, 16(26): 57-63.

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http://www.yiyaodaobao.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.yiyaodaobao.com.cn/EN/Y2019/V16/I26/57

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