术后早发性结直肠癌患者预后模型的构建及验证

doi:10.20047/j.issn1673-7210.2023.27.04

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Abstract Objective To investigate the independent prognostic factors of postoperative early-onset colorectal cancer (EOCRC) and to establish a prognostic nomogram model. Methods Patients diagnosed with EOCRC and treated surgically during 2010—2015 were collected from the SEER database and randomly divided into a training set and a validation set in a ratio of 7∶3. Independent prognostic factors were screened by Cox regression analysis, and the nomogram was constructed. The accuracy and reliability of the prognostic model were evaluated by C-index, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration chart, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Results Cox regression analysis showed that race, marital status, histological type, TNM stage, differentiation degree, SEER stage and carcinoembryonic antigen level were independent prognostic factors that ultimately affected the survival of patients (HR＞1, P＜0.05). The C-index of training set and verification set were 0.801 and 0.811, respectively. In the training set, the 3-year and 5-year survival rates predicted by the model were 0.862 and 0.845, respectively. In the validation set, the model predicted a 3-year and 5-year AUC of 0.860 and 0.854, respectively. The calibration curve and decision curve indicated that the prognostic model can accurately predict the survival of patients. Conclusion In this study, independent prognostic factors in postoperative EOCRC patients are identified and a clinically available prognostic nomogram model is established.

Key words： Early-onset colorectal cancer Postoperative Prediction model SEER database

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	GAO Dandan1 ZHANG Heng2 QIN Haoren2 WANG Hui2

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GAO Dandan1 ZHANG Heng2 QIN Haoren2 WANG Hui2. Construction and validation of prognostic model in patients with postoperative early-onset colorectal cancer[J]. 中国医药导报, 2023, 20(27): 20-24,29.

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https://www.yiyaodaobao.com.cn/EN/10.20047/j.issn1673-7210.2023.27.04 OR https://www.yiyaodaobao.com.cn/EN/Y2023/V20/I27/20

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