老年重症脑卒中患者营养不良风险列线图预测模型的构建及验证

doi:10.20047/j.issn1673-7210.2023.05.06

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Abstract Objective To analyze the risk factors of malnutrition in senile patients with severe stroke, and to constructed the corresponding column graph model. Methods A total of 782 elderly patients with severe stroke in the intensive care Unit of Department of Neurology of the First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University were selected as the research objects and divided into modeling group (547 cases) and validation group (235 cases). According to serum albumin level, patients were divided into malnutrition group and non-malnutrition group. The influencing factors of malnutrition were identified by logistic regression analysis, and the prediction model of malnutrition risk line graph was constructed. The prediction effect of the model was verified internally by Bootstrap method, and the model was verified externally by verification group data. Results There were statistically significant differences in age, history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, anemia, Charlson comorbidity index (CCI), Glasgow coma score (GCS), Barthel index, nutritional support, mechanical ventilation, neutrophil count, hematopoietic volume, proportion of fibrinogen, albumin, and total protein between the two groups (P＜0.05). Logistic regression analysis showed that age, CCI, GCS score, anemia, neutrophil count, total protein level, and nutritional support were independent influencing factors for malnutrition in senile patients with severe stroke (OR＞1, P＜0.05). The area under ROC curve of the constructed model was 0.858, and the internal verification results showed that the C-index was 0.851. The area under ROC curve of the verification group was 0.848. Conclusion The prediction effect of the column graph model constructed in this study is good, and it can provide reference for early clinical prediction of malnutrition risk in elderly patients with severe stroke.

Key words： Elderly patients Stroke Malnutrition Nomogram

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	LI Junzhuo YANG Wen LIU Guangwei▲ ZHANG Ruixin YANG Jiajia

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LI Junzhuo YANG Wen LIU Guangwei▲ ZHANG Ruixin YANG Jiajia. Construction and verification of a prediction model for malnutrition risk in senile patients with severe cerebral apoplexy[J]. 中国医药导报, 2023, 20(5): 28-32.

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