食管癌患者术后静脉血栓栓塞症的危险因素分析及预测模型建立

doi:10.20047/j.issn1673-7210.2022.33.14

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Abstract Objective To investigate the risk factors of postoperative venous thromboembolism (VTE) in patients with esophageal cancer and to construct a statistical model for personalized prediction of the incidence of postoperative VTE in patients. Methods The clinical data of 127 patients who underwent standard radical esophageal cancer surgery in the Department of Thoracic Surgery of the Fourth Hospital of Hebei Medical University from January 2020 to June 2021 were retrospectively analyzed and divided into VTE group (32 patients) and non-VTE group (95 patients). Logistic regression analysis was used to explore the risk factors for postoperative VTE in patients with esophageal cancer and to construct a column line graph predicting the risk of postoperative VTE in patients with esophageal cancer. Results Age, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, body mass index, preoperative D-dimer, duration of surgery, and open left chest were higher in the VTE group than in the non-VTE group, with statistically significant differences (P ＜ 0.05). Multi-factor logistic analysis showed that diabetes was an independent risk factor for the development of VTE (OR ＞ 1, P ＜ 0.05); while the length of surgery and the mode of surgery were independent protective factors for the development of VTE (OR ＜ 1, P ＜ 0.05). Column plots were constructed to predict the risk of postoperative VTE in patients with esophageal cancer, and the calibration curve was more closely aligned with the ideal curve, with an area under the curve of 0.769 for the ROC curve, and the decision curve showed that interventions in patients with a threshold probability of 0 to 73.1% may result in clinical benefit. Conclusion Diabetes mellitus, duration of surgery, and mode of surgery are independent risk factors for postoperative VTE in patients with esophageal cancer, and the column line graph model constructed in this study has a high predictive value for the occurrence of postoperative VTE.

Key words： Venous thromboembolism Esophageal cancer Perioperative period Risk factors

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	WANG Mingbo1 HUANG Chao1 DONG Keqin1 ZHANG Jianfeng2 LIU Boheng1 TIAN Ziqiang1

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WANG Mingbo1 HUANG Chao1 DONG Keqin1 ZHANG Jianfeng2 LIU Boheng1 TIAN Ziqiang1. Risk factor analysis and estoblishment of predictive modeling of postoperative venous thromboembolism in patients with esophageal cancer[J]. 中国医药导报, 2022, 19(33): 66-70.

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https://www.yiyaodaobao.com.cn/EN/10.20047/j.issn1673-7210.2022.33.14 OR https://www.yiyaodaobao.com.cn/EN/Y2022/V19/I33/66

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