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| Health risk and prediction analysis of adolescents caused by air pollution in Chengdu city |
| XIA Yizhang1 LI Ran1 ZHANG Yan2 CHEN Yu2 |
1.College of Public Health, Chengdu Medical College, Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610500, China;
2.College of Health and Intelligent Engineering, Chengdu Medical College, Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610500, China |
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Abstract Objective To explore the health risk of adolescents caused by air pollutants in Chengdu, and to predict the trend of health risk in the next five years. Methods Data of air pollutants in Chengdu from January to December 2020 were used, the health risk assessment model was used to estimate the health risk of adolescents in Chengdu caused by different air pollutants, and the grey model was used to predict the future health risk. Results In 2020, the health risk of adolescents caused by air pollutants in Chengdu was in the descending order of PM2.5＞PM10＞O3＞CO＞NO2＞SO2, the range was 0.73×10-9-2.76×10-6; prediction in 2025, the health risks caused by PM2.5, PM10, SO2, NO2, CO, and O3 in Chengdu will decrease by 34.4%, 40.1%, 60.7%, 78.0%, 61.8%, and 11.6%, respectively, compared with 2021. NO2 had the largest decrease, while PM2.5, PM10, and O3 had smaller decreases. Conclusion The health risks caused by PM2.5, PM10, and O3 in the atmosphere in Chengdu in 2020 are serious; prevention and control of particulate matter and O3 pollution is the focus of air pollution control in Chengdu in the next five years, and further attention should be paid to the harm caused by air pollutants to teenagers.
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