Health risk assessment and prediction analysis of elderly population caused by air pollution in Chengdu-Chongqing area in 2020
LI Ran1 XIA Yizhang1 ZHANG Yan2 CHEN Yu2
1.College of Public Health, Chengdu Medical College, Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610500, China;
2.Chengdu Medical College, School of Big Health & Intelligent Engineering, Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610500, China
Abstract：Objective To quantify the health risks of the elderly population caused by air pollution in Chengdu-Chongqing area and to predict the changes of health risks in the future, so as to provide a theoretical basis for pollution control and health management of the elderly population. Methods The Chengdu-Chongqing area with typical aging was selected as the research area, and the observation data of PM2.5, PM10, NO2, SO2, CO, and O3 were collected from January 1 to December 31, 2020. Health risk assessment and grey prediction model were used to estimate the health risk of the elderly population. Results The atmospheric particulate matter and NO2 showed a “U-shaped” trend of change. The annual concentration of SO2 and CO showed little difference, while O3 pollution showed a trend of “high in summer and low in winter”. The health risk value caused by O3 and CO exceeds the maximum acceptable level of 1×10-6, and the health risk value caused by other pollutants was small. The health risk caused by pollutants in the young elder was greater than that in the very old people. The health risk values of the elderly population were predicted to decrease in the future, and the order from high to low was SO2(86.40%)＞PM10(51.58%)＞NO2(49.62%)＞PM2.5(42.43%)＞CO(15.48%)＞O3(8.29%). Conclusion The health risk caused by O3 is the most serious in the elderly population and lasts for a long time. In the future, the government should focus on and control O3 pollution, give full play to the function of community health management, and improve the self-health management ability of the elderly.
李燃1 夏依章1 张艳2 陈煜2. 2020年成渝地区大气污染所致老年人群健康风险评估及预测分析[J]. 中国医药导报, 2023, 20(14): 159-162.
LI Ran1 XIA Yizhang1 ZHANG Yan2 CHEN Yu2. Health risk assessment and prediction analysis of elderly population caused by air pollution in Chengdu-Chongqing area in 2020. 中国医药导报, 2023, 20(14): 159-162.
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