Abstract：Objective To establish a model based on the per capita medical expenses of general hospitals in Jiangsu Province from 2004 to 2015, and to forecast it from 2016 to 2020. Methods Per capita medical expenses of general hospitals in Jiangsu Province from 2016 to 2020 was calculated and predicted based on GM(1, 1) model, Excel and GTMS 3.0. Results Each model′s accuracy level of prediction was rather high and fitting effect was qualified. The results indicated that the outpatient per capita medical expenses, outpatient drug fee, inpatient per capita medical expenses and inpatient drug fee will show an increasing trend, while the proportion of drug fee in medical expenses will show a declining trend from 2016 to 2020. Conclusion This theory suggests establishing the long-term effective compensation mechanism, the dynamic adjustment mechanism of medical service price and the national health insurance system.
崔婷婷 熊季霞. 江苏省综合医院人均医疗费用预测分析[J]. 中国医药导报, 2017, 14(16): 138-141.
CUI Tingting XIONG Jixia. Analysis on the prediction of per capita medical expenses of general hospitals in Jiangsu Province. 中国医药导报, 2017, 14(16): 138-141.
2017, Vol. 14 
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